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State by state betting - tracking the early vote for the presidential election.


tailsyoulose
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4 hours ago, theguesser said:

 Our model projects overall turnout in the race to be a record setting 158 million, with an 80th percentile range between 147 million and 168 million.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

I could be wrong about this one. Youth vote did pick up and is almost at 2016 pace. First time voters still way down. As a percent of VAP, 146M this year would be roughly the same turnout as 2016. 

 

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