mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 1 - Whether there was cheating enough to flip the election is unknown, but we have to look at the reality - trump did worse than last time. If you look at the reddest states where there is no cheating(because it wouldn't work) trump declined in every one. AL - 2.2, ND -2.7, OK -3.1, WY -2.9. WV - 3.1, IA -1.4, NB -6.6. So it shouldn't be a shock that Trump declined by a couple pts in the rust belt and lost them all. 2 - the polls were total crap, likely fake, definitely meaningless, they were 6-8-10, even 15 pts off almost everywhere. 3 - Trumps rallies, their size, the Trump trains, meant nothing, indicated nothing. If they did he would have won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 The "Polling Industry" has been completely discredited. Guys like Nate Silver should just hang it up. That said, it was the Senate Polling that was the most horrible. They had Gideon winning in Maine by a substantial margin. In the end, the worst misses at the Pres Level were by the pollsters who had Biven Winning FL and NC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 A few more red state comparisons, Mo -3.5, TN -2.9, LA -1.0, SD -4.4, KS -5.8. Trump did worse everywhere, even where there is no fraud, and that's why NC is tight, GA and AZ flipped. Trump lost, while his personality was somewhat appealing, it was also totally polarizing, if he had toned it down a modest amount, and not acted like a baby over every single thing, he would prob have won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, El Chapo2017 said: The "Polling Industry" has been completely discredited. Guys like Nate Silver should just hang it up. That said, it was the Senate Polling that was the most horrible. They had Gideon winning in Maine by a substantial margin. In the end, the worst misses at the Pres Level were by the pollsters who had Biven Winning FL and NC. Nate doesn't do the polling, and he can rightfully take credit for FAR outperforming the Betting market in his POTUS calls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRevolver Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Nate Silver is great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 34 minutes ago, theguesser said: Nate doesn't do the polling, and he can rightfully take credit for FAR outperforming the Betting market in his POTUS calls. True. Still, it begs the question: What kind of a CLUELESS Fukk would Set Money on Fire betting on Biden? Betting on Biden? What a stupid fukk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, KingRevolver said: Nate Silver is great. All's Well, that Ends Well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fifty cint Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 1 hour ago, mikeman said: 1 - Whether there was cheating enough to flip the election is unknown, but we have to look at the reality - trump did worse than last time. If you look at the reddest states where there is no cheating(because it wouldn't work) trump declined in every one. AL - 2.2, ND -2.7, OK -3.1, WY -2.9. WV - 3.1, IA -1.4, NB -6.6. So it shouldn't be a shock that Trump declined by a couple pts in the rust belt and lost them all. 2 - the polls were total crap, likely fake, definitely meaningless, they were 6-8-10, even 15 pts off almost everywhere. 3 - Trumps rallies, their size, the Trump trains, meant nothing, indicated nothing. If they did he would have won. Might be time to start thinking about sports and move on.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 58 minutes ago, El Chapo2017 said: The "Polling Industry" has been completely discredited. Guys like Nate Silver should just hang it up. That said, it was the Senate Polling that was the most horrible. They had Gideon winning in Maine by a substantial margin. In the end, the worst misses at the Pres Level were by the pollsters who had Biven Winning FL and NC. Not only did the pollsters miss(lie) on collins by 10+, they also said lindsey could lose(he won by 11), said doug jones in ALA just might keep his seat(lost by 18), they also said several times that Mitch Mcconell was locked in a tight race and fihgting for his political life(won by 21), and had daines in MT losing(he won by 10). And dont forget about joni ernst, she won comfortably and was written off as dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Just now, mikeman said: Not only did the pollsters miss(lie) on collins by 10+, they also said lindsey could lose(he won by 11), said doug jones in ALA just might keep his seat(lost by 18), they also said several times that Mitch Mcconell was locked in a tight race and fihgting for his political life(won by 21), and had daines in MT losing(he won by 10). And dont forget about joni ernst, she won comfortably and was written off as dead. They fukked up on the Senate... Pretty good job on the Pres. Election... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, El Chapo2017 said: They fukked up on the Senate... Pretty good job on the Pres. Election... They did a good job on nothing, getting the outcome right if your numbers were way off means nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdalert447 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Polling is dead, media is dead, big tech is dead. Republicans are pu$$ies. Dems usually come out on top because they are better at ruthless politics. Congrats to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 1 hour ago, mikeman said: They did a good job on nothing, getting the outcome right if your numbers were way off means nothing. Silver's final forecast only missed on NC and FL. But, they epically missed on the Senate (especially in Maine)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 4 hours ago, mikeman said: Trumps rallies, their size, the Trump trains, meant nothing, indicated nothing. If they did he would have won. Or maybe they were the only thing that even kept it close. Possible he would have lost by more if he hadn't worked so hard down the stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, tailsyoulose said: Or maybe they were the only thing that even kept it close. Possible he would have lost by more if he hadn't worked so hard down the stretch. That was the plan, but the reality is trump didn't really outperform in the states he had rallies in vs the ones he didn't, the reality is in prob 45 states he did worse than last time, very similar amts across the board, 2-3-4-5 pts worse. In WI, MI and PA he'll end up about 2 pts worse in each. other than fl(the cubans) and arkansas, and I think NY(cuomo), he underperformed. Now demographics changed in places, but in almost every red state trump lost support, very similar amounts, covid prob played a role, I'm sure his petulance did too, but if he lost support in red states it's no surprise he lost 2-3-4 5 % in blue states too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 The fact the republicans will keep the senate(probably) is good, but we're fucked, Biden will still be able to allow mass immigration, he will stop the wall, he will massively allow refugees, and he will likely be able to change election laws to favor dems massively. I highly doubt a republican will ever win again, EVER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redstripe Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 I'm more pissed about masks being mandatory everywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 36 minutes ago, redstripe said: I'm more pissed about masks being mandatory everywhere Biden has no authority to do that, he could on federal property, that's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Hoffa Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 It's disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdalert447 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Will Trump be mandated to wear a mask at Biden’s inauguration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, mikeman said: The fact the republicans will keep the senate(probably) is good, but we're fucked, Biden will still be able to allow mass immigration, he will stop the wall, he will massively allow refugees, and he will likely be able to change election laws to favor dems massively. I highly doubt a republican will ever win again, EVER. To be fair , the fact Trump went so extreme , you knew it was coming back from the dems eventually. That’s one of the reasons I disliked him. Need more moderates on both sides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Just now, rdalert447 said: Will Trump be mandated to wear a mask at Biden’s inauguration. Would be amazing. Lolololol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Hoffa Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Just now, rdalert447 said: Will Trump be mandated to wear a mask at Biden’s inauguration. I think he'll skip it altogether. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdalert447 Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 That would be a shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Now that Trump has blowtorched the center, many moderates and former dem voters will be up for grabs. R's need to choose a leader to rally around who can maintain Trump's policy platform, but actually be efficient at governing and getting it done. This is a temporary setback - the future is bright. Unless they put a shitbag like marco rubio or John kasich at the front. Then we are fucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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