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PROP

First score in GB/SEA NOT a TD - +140

 

A half-unit on this one as my only play in the NFL's opener. Not a huge amount of analysis for this one. It's a field goal league, featuring one of the league's best defenses if not the premiere defense in pro football from last season.

 

Seems like a reasonable possibility to me in a league where field goals from 50+ are becoming common place that those are the first points this season.

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RUNLINE

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +140

 

A one unit play on the Baltimore Orioles runline tonight at home. Sounds like the Reds are resting Phillips, Bruce and Hamilton. Chris Tillman, meanwhile has only given up more than 3 runs once since July 12th, and the Reds bring the 29th ranked offense into Camden Yards. Neither pitcher has really faced either line-up too much, though in the *VERY* small sample, all five hitters with a history against Leake are hitting .364 or better.

 

Leake *is* coming off back-to-back shutouts and a very strong performance against the Pirates, where he threw only 82 pitches, but in the 8 previous starts allowed 4 or more runs 5 times.

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2-0 result. The half unit play came a little easier than the baseball game, but at first it didn't seem like it was going to happen that way.

 

Baltimore jumped out to a 6-0 lead on Mike Leake, who after pitching 14+ scoreless innings in his last 2+ starts gave up a 2-run home-run with 26 outs to go in the contest at Camden. According to FanGraphs, up by 6, Baltimore had a 92.6% win expectancy before the start of the 2nd inning. The Reds cut the lead to 7-3 after a Devin Mesoraco solo shot in the top of the 6th, and by the end of the 7th the game was all knotted up.

 

You can expect to hear Mesoraco's name a lot more in the coming years. He's got a short, violent swing and never seems to be out of any at-bat. He went 4-for-4 tonight with a HR.

 

The Orioles returned the favor with a 2 run single by JJ Hardy, and after 2 innings of shutout ball from Hunter and Britton, the Orioles come away with one of the weirder run-live covers of the last few days.

 

Over in the NFL, the Seahawks marched through Green Bay and looked like a defending Super Bowl team in their 2014 home opener. But they started the scoring with a 35-yard field goal 6:03 into the game, and cashed the +140 First score NOT a TD prop. Marshawn Lynch was the MVP: 20 carries, 110 yards, 2 touchdowns. The defending champs cover the side easily, winning 36-16.

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Thanks Sharp Square!

 

TOTAL

Pirates/Cubs Under 8.5 Full Game -105

Pirates/Cubs Under 4.5 First 5 +100

 

Both for one unit. Wrigley is the 5th best pitcher's park in baseball this season, and Tsuyoshi Wada has allowed more than two runs just twice since the start of July. Vance Worley has had a rough go of it lately, but allowed just two runs in 6.1 innings work versus the Reds in his last outing and the Cubs have only the 24th ranked offense in baseball. A late announcement on the umpires has Brian O'Nora behind the plate, who has called 17 games to the under in 23 gigs this season.

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All for one unit

 

SIDE

Toronto Blue Jays -0.5 First 5 +115

 

Fading Allen Webster in this one. The struggling right-hander has allowed 12 runs in his last two outings and boasts a hefty 7.58 home ERA. He's only had one game against Toronto in his brief two-year career, allowing four runs in six innings to Toronto in 2013. The Blue Jays send Drew Hutchison to the mound who has had two impressive starts in a row, and while the Blue Jays are fading fast they still have a chance to get hot and contend for a wild card spot in September. Hutchison has pitched against Boston twice this year, and while the Red Sox knocked him around pretty bad in July, Hutchison did pitch well in Fenway.

 

MONEYLINE

Milwaukee Brewers -119

 

The Brewers have lost nine in a row, and have in that time fallen four games behind the division leading Cardinals. It is absolutely do-or-die time for the Brewers, who now also find themselves three games out of the Wildcard. Now is the time, and may be the Brewers last chance to stay in the playoff hunt after being in cruise control of the NL Central for much of the season. The Brewers turn to Mike Fiers, who brings a solid 1.93 ERA into tonight, and boy do the Brewers need it. Fiers hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in an outing since being placed into the full-time rotation on August 09th, and has gone less than 7 full innings just once.

 

Lackey, meanwhile, has been only average since being traded to St. Louis in July. He's had games allowing 9, 4 and 5 runs in his six starts in a Cardinal uniform, but did make his St. Louis debut against Milwaukee where he pitched well. The bottom line with this one is the Brewers are now playing in a month's worth of playoff games. This is certainly the biggest series of the season for the Brewers, who, if they lose tonight and this weekend, will likely find themselves unable to catch up to the Cardinals.

 

TOTAL

Kansas City Royals/New York Yankees Under 7.5 -112

 

It's only eight starts, of course, but all eight have been beauties for Yankee hurler Michael Pineda, who has allowed 2 or fewer runs in all eight of his 2014 outings, including in all four since August 13th. They'l be hosting James Shields and the Kansas City Royals. Outside of a rough performance against, yes, the Yankees, Shields has pitched strong since July 12th, allowing more than 3 runs only one other time. However, in Shields other start against the Yankees, he allowed just one unearned run.

 

Also, keep in mind that what was once considered an incredible hitters park just after its opening, the strong pitching performances and stadium alterations to the new Yankee Stadium have made it the 6th friendliest pitcher's park in baseball in 2014.

 

SIDE

Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +101

 

Angels starter Matt Shoemaker has given up only 2 runs in his last 5 starts, and has pitched 23 scoreless innings. He's allowed just 12 hits since August 06th. Nolasco, meanwhile, outside of a beautiful 7 inning performance at Kansas City on August 26th (in a game the Twins bullpen eventually lost) has given up 4 or more runs in 6 of his last 10 outings, and struck out 5 or fewer in 6 of those games as well. He has one win in his last ten games, and his ERA now hovers around 6.

 

--

 

I'll be back later, maybe with an MLB total or two depending on what the umpire assignments are, and of course a look forward to NCAA Football games tomorrow.

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Thanks, bcmoats. We split on those 4, but made a small profit on that set, losing the two +xxx and winning the two juiced.

 

However I went 2-3-1 today. Occasionally the day comes down to one play. Trailing 4-3 in the 8th, the Angels jumped ahead 6-4 and brought that lead to the brink, but it wasn't to be. Huston Street allowed a two-out, game-tying two run double on a fly ball just inches from Mike Trout's reach, and the game went to extras. Los Angeles did eventually win, but couldn't cover the run-line, and that closed my baseball night. The Pirates/Cubs first 5 was a dud thanks to two unearned runs, and the full game total was a no action play after the rain cancellation. The Royals and Yankees combined for just 1 and an easy under, and the Brewers got off their losing skid. Toronto had a 2-0 lead in the first at Fenway, but couldn't hold it and the first five play didn't cash.

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SIDE

Army -3 -114

Texas ML +102

 

PARLAY

TENNESSEE vs. Arkansas State-750

COLORADO vs. UMass -900

UTAH vs. Fresno State -500

UL MONROE vs. Idaho -600

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. East Carolina -630

OREGON STATE vs. Hawaii -360

 

I have write-ups on the North Texas, Army and Parlay plays over in the main forum. You can check those out by clicking here.

 

 

 

 

 

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TOTAL

San Francisco Giants/Detroit Tigers u7 +103

 

Very quietly, Madison Bumgarner has been one of the best road pitchers in baseball in 2014. His 1.86 ERA and 10 road wins are near the top of MLB and while David Price has been a bit inconsistent since being traded to the Tigers, he bracketed a poor performance against the Yankees with three 1-run outings. Umpire Mike Muchlinski has called games to the under 64% of the time this year, and has not called back-to-back over games since April.

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MONEYLINE

Kansas City Royals +115

 

Last one for now. Royals starter Danny Duffy has allowed more than 3 runs only twice in the last two months, and has an impressive 2.19 road ERA. Brandon McCarthy has struggled for the Yankees as of late, allowing 4 or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and losing 4 of his last 5. Home Teams are only 10-17 losing -13.7 units with umpire Gary Cederstrom behind the plate. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer have all done well against McCarthy in double digit plate appearances.

 

I have a few teasers out today in CFB for fun as well. Good luck this morning/afternoon, everyone.

 

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4-3-0 yesterday for the profit.

 

The Royals really killed me, as Danny Duffy left with shoulder stiffness after just one batter and the wheels kind of fell off the Royals play in New York. We had an easy W with North Texas. Army made things interesting, leading 47-17 in the fourth but allowing 22 unanswered before closing the deal. The parlay came in, but it took all night. Oregon State/Hawaii was a late game, and we were left without a true hedge opportunity because a weather delay in the Idaho/UL Monroe game also made that one run long. But it worked out.

 

Hope for more of the same on NFL Sunday.

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NFL SIDES

Chicago -6

Kansas City -4

New Orleans -1.5

Carolina pk

San Francisco -4

St. Louis -3

 

There are short write-ups for all six of these games that I posted on the main forum here.

 

The NFL is not my sport, but I really don't think it is anyone's in the first few weeks. Lots of variance/volatility, everything is a feeling out process. Hopefully I swing on the lucky side of the chaos today.

 

I might have a baseball game or two here in a bit.

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SIDE

Cleveland Indian -1.5 +100

 

The Cleveland Indians now sit at 73-67, 4.5 games back of the Wild Card and looking up toward Detroit and Kansas City. Every game matters. Today, the Tribe send Carlos Carrasco to the mound to try to close out the White Sox series strong. He brings a 2.94 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and has allowed more than one run only once since entering the starting rotation on August 05th.

 

The White will send out Scott Caroll, who has allowed fewer than 4 runs only once in his last 7 starts, and the White Sox have lost in six of those games, all but one by more than a run.

 

That's the only baseball game I'm on today.

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The NFL is a brutal bitch. The Saints game hurts the worst. If I can somehow get out of these 49ers/Panthers game alive, I'll have lost just a unit today and count my lucky stars and promise the gambling Gods never to play so many NFL games again. Goodness.

 

I did hit two live plays: Eagles PK -125 (when 17-17), and Ravens +13 (when done 15-0), plus Matt Cassell Under 235.5 yards. But I lost a parlay and a teaser because I couldn't help myself..

 

All told, go 49ers, go Panthers, let's get out here mostly unscathed.

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3-4 on posted players for the first NFL Sunday. I went 8-7 overall, but some of those were live bets/in-game wagers and it's not fair to count what you don't post! So, a rough opening NFL day but it could have been worse. The Saints was the real turning point. I could have bought out of the game with the Falcons +13 at points in the first half, but figured I'd let it ride. New Orleans allowed almost 500 yards passing to the Falcons.

 

I'll be back with a few plays, maybe some baseball or something from the NFL games.

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Will you be keeping a unit tally in here?

 

Thanks for checking in, ERB.

 

I didn't plan on it, but unless otherwise noted you can expect that every play I make is to win 1 unit (for me, $100).

 

This has held true for what I've posted already. The ones I've posted are all one unit except where I noted a half unit. Again, all to win.

 

The reason I wasn't planning on posting a unit table play for these plays was because I will occasionally play games or props and live bet without posting them here, and sometimes those things are very time specific. Already it would have made me look very smart and very stupid in instances which weren't the case. But if people think I should, I can do that, no problem.

 

I do keep a record using the SBR spreadsheet and my own Excel sheet on a daily basis though, and I am happy to share that with anyone at anytime, without reservation. You can also follow many of my picks or thoughts on my Twitter.

 

In the last 30 days I am 51-46-4 on all plays at 52.58%, with a net of +$456.10

 

I took the summer off (we moved) and From January to June I was up $832.57 with a 49.89% win rate, most of my profits coming from in-game NBA arbitrage and middles.

 

I can also past post my records from back to 2006. I've made money 4 of 8 years betting and am up about $800 over the course of my "career".

 

Here is a screen shot of all the bets I made on Sunday, if it helps at all:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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For ERB or anyone else curious, I am 11-10-1 as of today on posted plays in this thread with a +0.3 profit.

My overall record (including non posted) in that timeframe is 20-16-1 with a +0.9 profit.

 

Today!

 

All for one unit

 

TOTAL

Rockies at Mets Total Under 7 -110

 

Jim Reynolds will be behind the plate tonight in New York, calling the Rockies/Mets game. Depending on whose tracking you believe, Reynolds has called either 16 of 23 (SO) or 18 of 25 (Statfox) games under the total this year. Both numbers put him at greater than 70% to the under. Citi Ballpark is the friendliest pitcher's ballpark in baseball in 2014, allowing just with a park factor run rate of just 0.844.

 

 

The pitching matchup is:

 

Christian Bergman, 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.59 WHIP

 

@

 

Jacob deGrom, 7-6 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.20 WHIP

 

I like the under here. Even though the total is only at 7, Jim Reynolds has not called a game to the over since June 14th. Bergman's ERA is high, but he has allowed just 1 and 2 ER in hist last two starts, and his two poor performances in spot starting action this season were both at Coors Field. deGrom has allowed more than 3 runs just once since July 02nd. The Mets have the 20th ranked offense. The Rockies do have bullpen issues, so it may be advisable to look into the First 5 total line too.

 

TOTAL

Cubs at Blue Jays Over 8 +107

 

Recency bias may play a factor in the under being more heavily juiced in this one, given Mark Buehrle's shutout performance at Tampa Bay in his last start. But Buehrle has allowed 3 or more runs in 7 of his last 10 starts dating back to July 11th, and Jake Arrieta, whose 2.81 ERA is impressive, has been aided by the friendly confines of Wrigley Field: He has just a 3.71 road ERA and a 3.34 Night ERA, and has allowed 6 and 9 runs in 2 of his last 3 road starts.

 

The pitching matchup is:

 

Jake Arrieta, 8-5 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP

 

@

 

Mark Buehrle, 11-9 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP

 

Umpire Jerry Layne has called 66.7% of his games to the over, including 4 of his last 6 and his only game in Toronto this year way back on April 9th. Rogers Centre is the 7th friendliest hitters park in the game and the Blue Jays feature the 5th best offense. The Cubs have allowed 8 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games and Toronto is 27th overall in Bullpen ERA. You can choose it to 7.5 for -122 at 5D. I'll probably lay some money on this one.

 

TOTAL

Marlins at Brewers Under 8 +100

 

Chasing a little steam with this one. No Ryan Braun tonight for the Brewers.

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