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1-0 yesterday

 

TOTAL

Tampa Bay Rays/New York Yankees Under 7 -101

 

 

A nice pitching match-up tonight between Alex Cobb and Michael Pineda. Neither of the two have allowed more than 2 runs in any outing in their last 10 starts. Yankee Stadium remains the 6th friendlist pitcher's park in the bigs and off a big combined 10-run night last night the teams will look for these two guys to carry them through a couple extra innings. The offenses are sub-average here, Tampa the 21st ranked offense and New York the 20th in baseball.

 

I'll try to flip the script off our sole action last night by taking the under.

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0-1 tonight. Tough way for that one to go down, but an exciting game all the same .Alex Cobb brings a 4-0 lead and a no-hitter into the 8th inning. The Yankees get a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th, Madden immediately pulls Cobb. Jake McGee in to close, hits Chase Headley in the mouth -- eerily similar to Giancarlo Stanton's much worse injury elsewhere tonight -- and a few batters later Chris Young hits a 3-run, game-ending homer to give the Yankees the win and bust the under.

 

The worst part was my DirecTV went out due to a storm right at the bottom of the 9th, so I'm outside making sure our satellite hasn't blown away and when I come back in the house the Pinstripes are celebrating.

 

Them's the breaks. Back tomorrow.

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TOTAL

Boston Red Sox/Kansas City Royals Over 7 -105

 

SIDE

Kansas City Royals -1.5 +120

 

Allen Webster has not had a very good 2014. In 8 starts this year, he's gone 3-3 with a 6.47 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. He's allowed 4, 6, 6, 3 and 4 runs in his last 5 starts. Ventura, then, brings a much better ERA into the game but was knocked around in his one start against Boston this year. The Royals are in a dead heat for the AL Central and coming off a tough loss to Boston last night, can't afford to drop two in a row and lose the advantage they have in the loss column over Detroit.

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2-3 tonight (thumbs down).

 

Too much action tomorrow, no discipline, will just post it all. Usually get murdered on big volume days. Hope I get lucky tomorrow!

 

Indiana -3

Arkansas ML +115

Georgia Southern/Georgia Tech Over 54

Duke -13.5

Nebraska -13

Army +28.5

Tennessee Oklahoma Over 56

UTSA/Oklahoma State Under 55

Louisville -6.5

Illinois +13

W. Kentucky/Middle Tennessee Over 64.5

Nevada/Arizona Under 63.5

Notre Dame -28.5

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

LA Angels -1.5

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It's slow going for me this time of year. I'm a baseball and basketball bettor first, and with baseball now branching into its 40-man rosters and basketball still about a month away, I'm stuck making wacky decisions like playing a billion games on a college football Saturday. Nevertheless, there are still some games on the diamond for the next few weeks so hopefully I can filter out some winners.

 

MONEYLINE

New York Yankees ML +106

 

This one went down a bit while I was deciding whether or not I wanted to go with it, so you could have got it at +112-+114 just a few hours ago, but them's the breaks. The Yankees are very likely out of the playoffs in 2014, but a faint hope glimmers. They're 6 back with 13 to play and need to jump frog four teams, including in-division rival Toronto to get in. Stranger things have happened in the history of baseball, but not too many. Nevertheless, at 76-73, the Yankees would certainly like to finish the final straightaway of the season strong. Masahiro Tanaka was cleared for a start this upcoming weekend, and Girardi is still managing like every game is game 7 of the World Series. To have a shot at October baseball they'd very likely have to go 12-1 or 13-0 the rest of the way, but I don't think they're quite ready to call it quits.

 

They have Michael Pineda going tonight, who has allowed more than 2 runs only once in ten starts this year: His last game in New York against this very Rays. But aside from a few hanging breaking balls that Rays betters took advantage of, it was still a strong performance from one of the Yankees current and future staff aces.

 

Whether or not the Yankees can pull off the small "upset" tonight may depend entirely on Pineda's ability to rebound from his last outing and keep his sliders from hanging over the middle of the plate. For the Rays, it's Jake Odorizzi, who has a 7.71 ERA and allowed 12 runs in two outings to the Yankees this season. The Rays are done for this year with only 73 wins, and both offenses have sputtered in the last 3-4 weeks.

 

Odorizzi is a much better home starter than a road starter, at least this year, so we'll see what happens.

 

TOTAL

Milwauke Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7 -110

 

It's do-or-die time for the Brewers, whose recent losing streak has now dropped them one full game behind the Pittsburgh Pirates for the 2nd wild card spot. A team that had contended and lead the NL Central for better parts of the 2014 summer now faces the current and likely overall NL Central winners, the St. Louis Cardinals, in a series that may make-or-break the Brewers 2014 playoff hopes. Lance Lynn will be bringing his 15-9, 2.73 ERA to the mound for St. Louis. He hasn't given up more than 3 runs in a game since June 28th. The deciding factor in the game may be Wily Peralta, whom the Brewers will turn their playoff hopes too tonight. He's 16-10 with a 3.75 ERA, and has been fairly inconsistent of late but has a 2 and 3 ER performance in his last 10 against St. Louis, and pitched very well against the Marlins last Wednesday.

 

Peralta's strong season against St. Louis is against the backdrop of a 7.71 ERA versus St. Louis from 2011-2013, so there is some risk there. On the bright side, both teams being in a playoff hunt likely means that they won't be doing many experimental things with their 40-man roster bullpens in the late innings, unless the game has already gotten away from one side or the other, in which case the under is probably toast anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

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SIDE

Cleveland Indians -1.5 +130

Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105

 

MONEYLINE

Chicago White Sox +104

 

TOTAL

Seattle Mariners/LA Angels Under 8 -119

 

PARLAY

Cubs ML/Cardinals ML +177

 

 

1-1 yesterday, profit on the margin since the winner had the juice. A bunch of plays today, will try to get some write-ups for these later, as I'm about to record the next HD podcast for the site. Good luck everyone!

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3-2 last night. Hope to keep the pace moving.

 

TOTAL

Auburn/Kansas State Over 63.5 -110

 

The total in Auburn has cleared 63.5 4 of its last 5 games, with its one exception being in Alabama. They've gone over the total 4 of their last 6 road games and are averaging 52 points through 2 weeks, including one game against a middle-of-the-road Arkansas opponent. Kansas State has similarly scored an average of 43.50 PPG against two cupcakes, and has scored at least 30 points in all of their last 5 games. The total has gone over in 5 of Kansas State's last 7 games and they are a difficult team to play at home, so I expect a lot of counter-punching.

 

SIDE

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +165

 

Playing the value here.

 

It's tough to bet baseball this time of year for a variety of reasons. First, you've got a handful of teams who've clinched the playoffs or their division who will periodically and randomly give their starters "reward" days off. You've also got the much larger handful of teams who are experimenting with call-ups on their 40-man roster because they're out of playoff contention all together. Pitchers arms are tired. But there are still a few match-ups day-in and out that have meaningful playoff or division repercussions, and with oddsmakers now attending to football first, those games can be worth a look.

 

Kyle Lohse has not had a very good recent history versus his old team the St. Louis Cardinals. He was 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA last year and is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA this year. His road ERA is 4.71, a full two points higher than his home ERA. He's had 5, 7, 4 and 9 run games in his last 10 outings, and has made it to the 7th inning only 3 times. He allows majority fly balls and Busch Stadium is tied for the 4th best scoring park in the league. Shelby Miller, meanwhile, does his best work at home and has allowed only 4 runs versus Milwaukee in two starts in 2014. The three years prior, Miller went 3-0 in 5 decisions with a 2.03 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in his last 5 starts.

 

The Cardinals have 7 players with HR against Lohse and 10 with at least 1 RBI. Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta and Yadier Molina all have OPS of .919 or higher over 20+ at bats vs. Lohse. Only Aramis Ramirez really has good numbers for Miller.

 

The Brewers are scratching and clawing to get back into the wildcard, and their big come-from-behind victory two nights ago figured to be a key late-season character win and perhaps give them momentum into the final stretch. But the Brewers bats were foiled again by Adam Wainwright yesterday in a 2-0 St. Louis shutout victory, and the Cardinals themselves have to keep an eye on the surging Pirates, who are only 3 back with 12 to play for the NL Central.

 

This could be a close one, but the pitching discrepancy, the hitting numbers vs. Lohse, the Busch stadium factor, and the price perhaps present some value on the Cardinals side. The current runline is St. Louis -1.5 +160 or +165 depending on where you look and you can get the -1 at +$ also.

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