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Tampa Bay Downs 2022-2023


rdalert447
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A couple of live long ones today, boys. Look alert.

Race 1

#3 Luca Drew the Ace 12-1

I don’t know if trainer Hardesty is a guy or girl, but she has some great numbers at Tampa in very limited number of starts. Over the last two meets, she is 5 for 19 with a whopping plus $71 ROI. Unheard of. When you break it down by category, it makes today’s entrant all the more appealing:

33% Dirt Sprints, +$79 ROI

25 % Short Layoffs, +$38 ROI

33% cutting in distance, plus +$32

and here’s a crazy one: 50% when off at 11-1 to 20-1, +$54 ROI.

Fire at will.

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Ochoa has the other live long one. He’s a notorious bomber here and at Colonial. Hasn’t detonated a thing yet. He will.

Race 5

#1 True Atka 15-1

Ochoa scored with this one at 57-1 at Colonial in August. Has run some good races here in the past. Should be improving today with a few Tampa races under its belt.

Ochoa has two other entrants today as well, in races 3 and 7. Low odds though, so I’ll probably only use in exotics. 
 

Good luck today.
 

 

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On 11/22/2022 at 9:06 AM, rdalert447 said:

Opening day is tomorrow and there’s been a couple of interesting developments since the end of last meet.

The first one is that it appears Rafael Schistl will not be showing up this meet. Hoping I’m wrong, but he split with his main owners and his new owners mainly stable up in the Mid-Atlantic. Aldana Spieth has his old horses, so she’ll probably improve off past results.

Spieth has two wins in the last 2 weeks; 14-1 and 22-1. One has been for Schistl’s old owners, Endsley Oaks Stable. I think that combo is about to go on a run, and they have three entered today. All at nice prices:

Race 2 # 3 Rattlesnake Ridge 8-1

Race 4 #6 Nip of Bourbon 8-1

Race 7 #6 A Foolish Fancy 30-1

I’ll be involved with all three. Just posting as a public service. 😁

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2 hours ago, rdalert447 said:

I made win bets on the following:

Race 4 #4 King Ramos 30-1

Race 5 #7 Missmollyorbit 12-1

Race 8 #9 Morgan Point 20-1

Race 10 #10 Dreaming of Kona 12-1

Heading out to the UCF campus for the day, so don’t have time to figure exotics. Good luck today, Jasson. And anyone else in action.

thanks took him WPS  got 3rd

3    King Ramos    4    -    -    17.20

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  • 2 weeks later...

two horses today that have bad morning lines. Will be playing both if we see anything close.

Race 2
#5 Bid Once 8-1
Doubt we will see close to 8-1, but even in the 4-1 to 5-1 range, I will bet. Horse ran great last out, at same distance, similar class conditions, and was bet down to 9/5. Trainer hits at around 15% career, and is just a tick under that at Tampa this meet. He should have a handful of winners between now and end of meet.

Race 5
#6 Whistlewhileyoumow 10-1
Another horse that appears to be in great form, which seems to be important at these smaller tracks, as many horses are in poor condition. Horse has a win and a second in two starts at the meet, at similar distance vs similar class. The catch is, it’s going first off the claim for Posadas. He’s a new trainer, so not much info on him first off claim. But, he’s having a great meet so hoping the horse wasn’t juiced up by previous trainer.

Best of luck, all!

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