Sam Odom Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 The evil of laying big Chalk... Why does -200 in MLB appear to be a LOCK to sooooooooo many? The old "They are -200 for a reason" is a very strong draw... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRevolver Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 That's one of the biggest mistakes I made early on in my gambling journey. That's one of the fastest ways of going broke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I still haven't LEARNED it but I came closer to LEARING it 3 years ago I thing it was. Pats were playing at home vs minny I think and Minny was down to a rookie QB who had never made a start. Line was crazy high.............. I bet 1st half and LOST Lost a BUNCH. came close to learning that day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FakeDeemer Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Thats why you arb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Why is it so hard to teach old folks what vig is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Why teach 'em? Sheep exist to be shorn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HRWager Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Its very easy Sam, as a square bettor I can say that there is no juice if you win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Laying big chalk isn't an issue, just as long as your #'s say it should be chalkier. I think it's more of an indictment on a novice bettor's lack of skill to determine a edge or lack there of. Mayweather has been a cash cow at -500 a fight. Granted MLB is quite different, but if my line is -300 and the books are giving me -200 I'll hammer it every time and not think twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripp Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I don't know that blindly "staying away from chalk" is very good advice. There IS a reason that team is -200, they are much better than their opponent (or at least much more likely to win in that scenario). Now, does -200 mean they should win EVERY game? No it should mean they win 67% of the time, which of course means they should lose 33% of the time (actually should win less often than that once you adjust for a NVL) It isn't as simple as bet dogs and short favs to make money. There can be situations where you bet a -600 fav and it is a GREAT bet. Not because it won or lost, but if you're data shows that -600 fav should be -900 then over time that's a money maker and a very solid bet. Just like there can be terrible bets made at +200 when in reality maybe they should be closer to +270 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FakeDeemer Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Arb or parlay or both Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Inside story to this thread... Sammy's son bet 100 to win 50 on SanFran yesterday When SF was losing 5-1 he was 'crying' to Sammy :smiley-laughing001: Sammy said - I told you to stay away from laying Big #s SF comes back to win :clap2: Now he is thinking he is SHARP Life goes on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 In the Gambling world...the fish are out there being eaten by the sharks (which are the books) the sharper gamblers are the remora who pick up a scrap or two that the sharks miss. Point is, you need a lot of fish to make the entire ecology work so a few remora can survive. Don't waste time on the fish...fish will be fish...and we need a lot of fish to make it all work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dickie Greenleaf Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 There are always exceptions...always Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 even the exceptions have exceptions... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanlab Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 had a buddy who used to take maddux -300 and pedro -300 everytime they pitched. he said he couldnt pass it up. would put his entire account on it. one afternoon i remember toronto was in town and pedro was like -310. toronto led 4-0 after a few innings and my friend just left. i say his car slowly drive away it was classic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedge Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 The evil of laying big Chalk... Why does -200 in MLB appear to be a LOCK to sooooooooo many? The old "They are -200 for a reason" is a very strong draw... They also play the games for a reason, that's why I look for live dogs. I try to avoid big chalk in bases, rarely is the price justified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArchieBunker Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Why teach 'em? Sheep exist to be shorn. Without the sheep the bookies would go broke and then no one would have a place to play.... let'em learn on their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inkwell77 Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Without the sheep the bookies would go broke and then no one would have a place to play.... let'em learn on their own. This is flawed thinking imo. You set a good market price and there are sharps on both sides, ala the stock market. Bookies in the -110 sense (hopefully) will be a thing of the past (already are for the huge players) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 had a buddy who used to take maddux -300 and pedro -300 everytime they pitched. he said he couldnt pass it up. would put his entire account on it. one afternoon i remember toronto was in town and pedro was like -310. toronto led 4-0 after a few innings and my friend just left. i say his car slowly drive away it was classic pedro martinez's lines were astronomical . remember them well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 This is flawed thinking imo. You set a good market price and there are sharps on both sides, ala the stock market. Bookies in the -110 sense (hopefully) will be a thing of the past (already are for the huge players) dude, as the market gets sharper, that 4.5% vig becomes a MOUNTAIN. With only sharps, any advantage DISAPPEARS! We need sheep!!!! You think Vegas would be the monster-in-the-desert if only rational folks bet? it's the capitalist/Darwinian system, stupid people get eaten Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArchieBunker Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 pedro martinez's lines were astronomical . remember them well I remember seeing Randy Johnson in the mid 400's in his prime Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 I remember seeing Randy Johnson in the mid 400's in his prime What was the split on -420 - in other words what was the + side ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArchieBunker Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 What was the split on -420 - in other words what was the + side ? Seems like low 300's... it's been awhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 The only thing the sheep do is keep the Vegas doors open. Well for those sportsbooks that aren't just novelties anyways. Not with a -4.55% expectation, but a -30% expectation with parlays. IMO the sheep have little to do with the market on any given game, with few exceptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanlab Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 wow johnson -400 that is amazing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.