LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 This is for Yisman. I'm just going to try to shove some shit in here for the Austrian Grand Prix and see if it can be helpful to you. Red Bull RingStyria, AustriaLength: 2.688 milesTires: P Zero Yellow soft and P Zero Red supersoft (projected gap between the two .7 - .9 a lap).Weather: too early to tell about rain (seen both 0% and 20% chance of precipitation).Temperature: 80 degrees. I'll try to put some useful info in here in next few days but who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 The following graphic is from James Allen. It shows the performance difference between cars during the race. Probably what to take away form it is that Ferrari was very unlucky (Vettel's bad starting position and Kimi's spin) and that regardless their pace was very good. And that Massa also did very well in terms of pace to bookend the two Ferraris with Bottas' third. http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/06/analysis-behind-the-scenes-decisions-affecting-ferrari-and-williams-in-canada/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 Graphic not attached. Fuck. Let me try this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 And this from Pirelli: http://www.pirelli.com/corporate/en/press/2015/06/08/2015-canadian-grand-prix-race/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 Also of interest is that Ferrari used tokens to get a 30 hp boost in Montreal with their speed being slightly obscured by their race troubles which also meant that both cars had to deal with traffic more than Mercedes and they never had a chance of winning. Kimi ended up setting the fastest lap followed by Vettel. Obviously Mercedes didn't have to push in the same way. Impressed by Massa. http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2015/06/07/raikkonen-sets-fastest-lap-but-vettel-impresses/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 And now here is the same analysis of pace from last year's Austrian Grand Prix. Last year's race was the first in Austria since 2003 so there was less information set-up wise and strategy-wise for the teams than there usually is. This season there is at least a benchmark from last season's results. http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/06/could-bottas-have-beaten-hamilton-in-austrian-grand-prix-duel/ The takeaway is Bottas' pace with his third place possibly due to strategy mistakes by Williams. Hamilton and Rosberg were separated by less than two seconds at the end while Bottas was more than 9 seconds clear of Massa (but Massa won the pole). And Perez was very solid. Vettel retired on the second lap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 I'm just posting this shit in here to talk about possible driver matchups this weekend. All this shit is probably useless. Will try to find more info tomorrow. And talk about Hulkenberg and Williams upgrade for this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2015 Fastest laps so far this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 I'm deciding whether to buy access to more info because this is just for laughs. The weather at the Red Bull Ring is now projected to be colder during the race (around 64 degrees). Colder weather means a probable one-stop strategy like in Monaco and Canada. One-stop strategies have a greater chance to upset the course of the race and not just when your team pulls you in for a second stop while others stay out (Hamilton in Monaco). The money if there is any is probably in the driver match-ups. I don't think (maybe Yisman you can) that you can originate anything about F1 accurately since there are so many technological changes from year to year and not enough data, which make it (like bicycle racing, though that is less so) possibly easier to exploit fuck ups in the lines (though not by me) especially when you have such a passionate fan community betting on favorite drivers. Waiting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 Force India gets the new Mercedes engine this week. And Red Bull is in a lot of trouble at their home track. http://www.grandprix.com/ns/ns31109.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted June 18, 2015 Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 thanks LCD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 thanks LCDNothing of value yet. I'm just deciding whether to upgrade on information. Will wait to see. Also praying for da rain. Found this: https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/who-was-the-best-wet-weather-driver/ With the info that Button (he is the best there is, I think, on a drying track when you have to precisely stay on line) and Massa are very good wet weather drivers. Also like Perez, remembering Malaysia in 2012. Also Jean-Eric Vergne (now the Ferrari test driver is very, very good in the wet but shit would have to happen - think of the odds you could get on him). Also from the same site is this awesome article about drivers in 2014: https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/2014-model-based-driver-rankings/ Alonso is king and the pertinent information for Sunday is this: Seeing Rosberg up against Hamilton for a couple of years has helped to identify their relative strengths and weaknesses. Hamilton is quite rightly considered one of the sport’s best ever qualifiers, having previously outqualified Alonso 9-8, Kovalainen 26-9, and Button 44-14. Against expectations, Hamilton did not assert dominance over Rosberg in qualifying in either 2013 or 2014. Excluding Germany 2014 and Hungary 2014, the overall head-to-head tally stands at 18-18. Looking back, Rosberg’s tremendous qualifying pace should have been obvious. As a rookie he was beaten 12-6 by the exceptionally quick Webber, who outqualified every teammate he ever had except Vettel, including a 31-4 drubbing of Coulthard. Rosberg then beat Wurz 15-1, Nakajima 27-9, and Schumacher (arguably the best qualifier of all time in his heyday) 41-17. My subjective perception in 2014 was that Rosberg excelled in picking patient, exact lines through slow corner complexes, while Hamilton was unbeatable under heavy braking. To test this observation, I recorded each driver’s best sector times for each track (set in any session, and excluding qualifying times for both drivers at Germany 2014 and Hungary 2014), and I recorded the number of heavy braking zones (reductions in speed of at least 150km/h) and the number of slow corners (minimum apex speed less than 100km/h) in each sector.As you can see below, Hamilton gained net time on average the more heavy braking zones there were in a sector, while Rosberg gained net time on average the more slow corners there were in a sector. Blue points are individual sectors. Black dots with error bars are mean +/- standard error of the mean. Red lines are linear regressions. The coefficient of determination is obviously very low for these linear fits, as this is a very complex system with lots of noise that these two variables are not accounting for. The trends are nevertheless suggestive. Fitting a multivariate linear model shows that Hamilton gained on average 0.030 seconds per heavy braking zone, while Rosberg gained on average 0.011 seconds per slow corner. For all other corners (minimum apex speed of at least 100km/h), Rosberg gained on average 0.003 seconds per corner. On ultimate pace, there was clearly nothing between the Mercedes drivers. In the 57 track sectors, Hamilton’s best time was quicker in 29 and Rosberg’s was quicker in 28, with a mean advantage of 0.011 seconds to Hamilton. As the cars changed dynamically across a race distance, however, Rosberg looked more fragile and his advantages more transient. Rosberg also made a string of errors in 2014 that looked like poor pressure management, perhaps because this was his first ever championship battle while Hamilton was a seasoned championship veteran. It’s worth remembering that before 2014, Hamilton had 22 wins while Rosberg had only 3 wins. Despite their contrasting qualities, Hamilton and Rosberg have proven to be two of the closest matched teammates in history. Almost every race between them has been a game of inches. Across 2013-2014, Hamilton was ahead 17-14 in races where neither driver had a mechanical DNF. That tally can be adjusted for cases where one driver experienced misfortune that changed their relative finishing positions — Malaysia 2013 (brake-balance adjuster failure in qualifying and team orders against Rosberg in the race), Britain 2013 (puncture for Hamilton), Korea 2013 (front wing failure for Rosberg), and Belgium 2014 (Hamilton hit by Rosberg) are all clear-cut cases, while Canada 2013 (KERS and radio failure for Rosberg in qualifying), Germany 2013 (Rosberg prematurely eliminated due to team holding him in Q2), Abu Dhabi 2013 (suspension failure for Hamilton in Q3 on his final hot lap), Monaco 2014 (Hamilton’s last lap hampered by yellow flag), and Germany 2014 (brake failure for Hamilton in Q1) are all ambiguous. It will be fascinating to see how the Mercedes drivers perform next year, especially if they find themselves battling at least one other team for the championship. Will Rosberg go the way of Webber at Red Bull after narrowly missing out in 2010, or will he learn from 2014 and come back even stronger next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 The narrative in Formula One is that Hamilton is better. This is the narrative that the English press who have an inordinate sway over the interpretation of Grand Prix racing. This is the narrative of Bernie Ecclestone who in an interview recently shit on Rosberg by saying that he's not "good for my business" like Hamilton. The most important section in the article quoted above is this: My subjective perception in 2014 was that Rosberg excelled in picking patient, exact lines through slow corner complexes, while Hamilton was unbeatable under heavy braking. To test this observation, I recorded each driver’s best sector times for each track (set in any session, and excluding qualifying times for both drivers at Germany 2014 and Hungary 2014), and I recorded the number of heavy braking zones (reductions in speed of at least 150km/h) and the number of slow corners (minimum apex speed less than 100km/h) in each sector. As you can see below, Hamilton gained net time on average the more heavy braking zones there were in a sector, while Rosberg gained net time on average the more slow corners there were in a sector. Is there a tendency now to overvalue Hamilton and undervalue Rosberg or is it possible that their relationship could be like that of Vettel and Webber, where they started out even and ended up very uneven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 Here is the description of the track: http://thejudge13.com/2015/06/17/f1-circuit-profile-2015-austrian-grand-prix-red-bull-ring-round-8/ CIRCUIT CHARACTERISTICS One of the shortest circuits with the quickest laptime on the calendar, the Red Bull Ring combines short straights and tight corners draped on the side of a valley in the Austrian mountains. 2014 laptimes were similar to the 2003 era, with Massa’s pole time being only half a second off Schumacher’s lap record, which could be beaten this year. It had been a long time since the teams had been to the Ring but now they will have a lot of data from the 2014 race that can be analysed that will help to maximise performance. The circuit will favour those with a decent power unit as the thinner mountain air will restrict horsepower, which will be especially punishing on the steep uphill drag towards turn two, possibly providing a good overtaking opportunity. The design of middle section attempted to mirror the old Osterreichring circuit, with the mid-speed turns four, five and six providing a reasonable flow. The final two turns have hard run-off areas on the outside, which encourage drivers to take liberties with the track limits. This provided a slightly farcical showing during qualifying last year with many times disallowed, but not always in a consistent fashion. The short lap means that fuel consumption should not be a problem, using around 1.4 kg per lap compared to the 2014 average of 1.69 kg per lap. The effect of carrying more fuel is also less than average around here, being around 0.3 seconds per 10 kg (average 0.34 seconds). Hopefully these two factors will reduce the need for the depressing lift and coast tactics of Canada, but teams will always push the limits and carry as little fuel as possible. BRAKING WITH BREMBO The Spielberg circuit is a very hilly track, characterized by sharp bends with 7 significant deceleration braking sections. The circuit is also quite short with little space for the system to cool between one braking section and another. Being a circuit that has been reinstated in the championship after several years, all teams will have to pay close attention to the temperature of brake discs and calipers. Turns one, two and three are the heaviest braking zones, all providing enough retardation to provide an overtaking opportunity. TYRES WITH PIRELLI: SOFT AND SUPERSOFT For the third race in succession, the P Zero Yellow soft and P Zero Red supersoft tyres have been nominated. The demands on the tyres are relatively low, with two straights and reasonably slow corners. So does the course favor Hamilton (turns 1, 2 and 3) or Rosberg (turns 4,5,6,7,8 and 9). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2015 Rosberg won last year. Lewis Hamilton is between -125 and -200 to win the race at British books right now.Nico Rosberg is between +185 and +275. The ideal situation may be for Hamilton to win pole which will bring even more money in on him to win. At what point do things like the course suiting Rosberg, the entrance to the first corner providing opportunities at the start, and the possibility of Hamilton fucking up (like in qualifying in 2014 when he fucked up twice, like at Monaco where he was partly to blame) and the fact that you have two almost even drivers statistically (at this point) contradicting the public's perception that they're not even at all. If the Rosberg line goes high enough after qualifying (with Hamilton beating him) then I'll bet on him. If it goes high enough before qualifying then I'll bet on him (say +350ish). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2015 There are probably going to be showers tomorrow (Friday) and cool temperatures during the practices. Saturday will probably bring more showers and it will also be cool. It looks like it is less likely to rain on Sunday but the temperatures will again be in the low 60s. So cool temperatures will probably mean more one-stops but with the tires graining more. Yisman hopefully you read this. What do you think. I can't bet on British books but the odds for the winning driver for the first practice tomorrow are generally: Practice 1 Hamilton -135Rosberg +140Vettel +1000Raikkonen +2000Bottas +3300Grosjean +5000Massa +5000 Practice 2 & 3 are not up yet. Does randomness or the likelihood of showers make betting on Vettel (so good in wet weather) or Bottas (who won Practice 3 last year) a possible bet. I would bet both for like .25 unit but I can't so oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2015 I didn't get on to see what the lines for the second practice so couldn't post. Neither Vettel or Bottas (lots of trouble today) won the first but Vettel did come in first in the second practice so it was a close miss I guess. If the Williams are having problems then it's probably only going to be Vettel who can stop the Mercedes freight train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2015 I'll mark that down as -.5. When I get to -10 I'll stop. Bottas .5 unit +3300 for 1st in 3rd practice. Williams engine upgrade, ran bigger fuel loads and hopefully not too much rain and Mercedes like last year concentrates on other things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 took a few longshots at Heritage #1) Sport : Motor Racing FuturesSelection : Formula 1Selection : Formula 1 - Austrian Grand PrixFelipe Massa +2700Odds to Win the Austrian Grand Prix - Fastest Lap#2) Sport : Motor Racing FuturesSelection : Formula 1Selection : Formula 1 - Austrian Grand PrixNico Hulkenberg +7000Odds to Win the Austrian Grand Prix - Fastest Lap#3) Sport : Motor Racing FuturesSelection : Formula 1Selection : Formula 1 - Austrian Grand PrixSergio Perez +7500Odds to Win the Austrian Grand Prix - Fastest Lap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 I am looking to bet Rosberg to win but only can get +300 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Bookmaker doesn't even have the head to heads up yet and it's less than 5 hours to the race which is so tilting. Those picks look good. If Mercedes dominate (probable) then they will stop pressing as much late when the other teams will be more frantic so the last laps would look good for your drivers to steal fastest laps. I don't think there's going to be rain (not sure) so don't want to make any bets. The temperature is going to be up to 71 so hopefully that means Mercedes does one stop and other teams gamble on two which really helps your fastest lap bets. You can't do better than +300 for Rosberg even in England. I'll do a small bet on Rosberg too. I still think he hasn't been crippled by Hamilton yet. After a couple of more races and losses it might be time to step back from betting on him. So: Rosberg 1 unit +300 And I can't bet it but I'll put it here: Fastest lap: Vettel 1 unit +550Bottas .5 unit +1600Massa .25 unit +2000 So hoping for non-Mercedes two stops and engine upgrades for Williams and Ferrari to come through. Not betting Kimi because he's something like .3 a lap slower generally than Vettel. If it showers then the +550 is a great bet. I'm using bet365's lines. Heritage's lines for you are much better. So those longer shots look really attractive. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 grabbed dogs on the HTHs #1) Sport : Motor Racing Other SportsSelection : K. Raikkonen 6/21/2015 5:00AM - (PST)Money Line +131 for Game#2) Sport : Motor Racing Other SportsSelection : P. Maldonado 6/21/2015 5:00AM - (PST)Money Line +137 for Game#3) Sport : Motor Racing Other SportsSelection : C. Sainz 6/21/2015 5:00AM - (PST)Money Line +133 for Game#4) Sport : Motor Racing Other SportsSelection : D. Ricciardo 6/21/2015 5:00AM - (PST)Money Line +127 for Game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 F1 is really awful for americans to bet on because of the hours heritage finally posted HTHs at 3 AM and like you said, others still haven't posted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Good luck Yisman. I'll try to get up and watch it live. If not I'll download it. It's really terrible when you're on the west coast. At some point in one of these races, it will really rain and there will be chaos that can hopefully be exploited. A lot of these lines look really sharp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted June 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Rosberg won. So (counting Practice 1) for the whole weekend +.25. If I had added Vettel to Saturday morning or been able to bet him for Practice 2 then that could have made a huge difference in the weekend. Oh well. The way in which Rosberg won (first corner, I knew it, whee!) shows that Hamilton hasn't broken him and they're probably in for an even fight for the rest of the way. Rosberg dominated the whole weekend except for the mistake in Q3 that cost him pole. Wish we had gotten a better price than +300 (even the +350 I talked about would have made a big difference and the chance for a bigger bet). Yisman, let me know how the head-to-heads turned out. I think Rosberg got the fastest lap before his car started going off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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