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1Vice 2015 Tour de France Betting Preview


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2015 Tour de France Betting Preview

The world’s most prestigious cycling event begins this weekend, as the 2015 Tour de France kicks off with a short 9-mile sprint in its first leg. Italy’s Vincenzo Nibali took the famed yellow jersey last year, but he isn’t the favorite to repeat in 2015.

That honor goes to Chris Froome, who is roughly a 2:1 betting favorite  . Froome won this event in 2013 and came in second place in 2012. Nibali is the fourth-highest favorite to repeat last year’s victory, returning a 5-1 return on investment.

The top American in the Tour de France is Tejay Van Garderen, who is a lofty 33-1 underdog. Outside of the top four favorites (Froome, Quintana, Contador, and Nivali), the odds start to get very high, jumping from about a 5:1 payout all the way to anywhere from 25:1 to 80:1 for the next tier of racers.

 

 

Beware, while these big payouts are tempting, these underdogs rarely come through and should be considered a sucker bet.

If you are unfamiliar with betting on cycling, we recommend you checking out our Cycling Betting Tutorial . Remember, cycling is a vastly different sport than most, with the different types of racing legs being favorable or unfavorable to different types of racers.

The first week of races is more geared towards sprint racers, with many of the legs consisting of flat routes. After the first rest day on July 13th, the endurance racers have the big advantage with the grueling mountain legs coming into play. The final leg is a flat route in Paris, with the winner usually decided prior to that day.

 

 

Betting on the Tour de France is a bit difficult when trying to pick the stage winner in the early sprint legs, but when the event moves to the mountains there are far less reasonable riders to choose from. We recommend playing the chalk and keep track towards the middle of July to see how the favorites are holding up with their endurance.

If you are looking for more online sport betting action and bonuses, check out 1Vice’s Pre Pre NFL Season NFL Sales where you can receive double the odds on your 2015 Super Bowl future bet.

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I'm waiting till after the end of the first week.  Hopefully with Nibali winning meaningless seconds today will begin a slight shift the odds before the mountain stages begin.  After Froome's and Contador's withdrawal last year it's safer to wait with hopefully more irrelevant steam provided by the results of the team time trial.  Rooting for Contador but it's a four horse race with the lack of long time trials favoring Quintana and I guess the idea was to help French riders.

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And here is a perfect example of incredibly useless betting patterns in the TdF.  Contador was +450ish on the day before the race began.  He lost a couple of seconds to Nibali and Froome in a windy time trial.  He goes to +550 before Stage 2.  After today's stage when he wasn't caught out like Quintana and didn't flat like Nibali he's +300ish.  It's almost like changing a Super Bowl future on an NFL team during the preseason.

 

Like Stage 3 in 2009, shit happens and everyone overreacts.  Contador recovered then.  If Quintana is going to win he can deal with this.  Nibali is +650ish now.  He might have the best form of any of the top four contenders.  He got a flat.

 

The end of the stage tomorrow is interesting.  If you are going to watch any portion of the 3-week race then it's worth tuning in to see the finish at the Mur de Hoy which is also the ending of the Fleche Wallone. It's a small hill.  It's really steep.  At one point of the climb the gradient is 26% which is insane.

 

The top contenders might feel like they need to make a statement like Nibali did last year in Sheffield after Contador and Froome thinned out the field.  The same could happen tomorrow.  The four top contenders are all longshots to win the stage.

 

Froome +8000

Quintana +4000

Contador +5000

Nibali +2500

 

The field has to be together at the end for any one of them to get it done.  Hopefully it will be windy so more likely. It should be an entertaining ending to the stage anyway as they all try to climb a wall on their bikes.

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